On Sunday, Aric Almirola won for the first time in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series season, but he isn’t yet guaranteed a spot in the playoffs.
After Aric Almirola of Stewart-Haas Racing won the NASCAR Cup Series race at New Hampshire Motor Speedway on Sunday, one of the first things that was mentioned was that he was heading to the playoffs for the fourth time in four seasons behind the wheel of the #10 Ford.
The contemporary playoff system, which was established in 2014 and significantly changed in 2017, has long been seen as a “win and in” format, with the one caveat that a winner must rank inside the top 30 in the point standings for that win to count toward a playoff berth.
That is not a problem for Almirola. He’s tied for 23rd place, 260 points ahead of Rick Ware Racing’s Josh Bilicki in 31st. Each race offers only 60 points, and there are only four races left in this year’s 26-race regular season.
Nonetheless, he hasn’t been formally locked in.
The regular season champion, as well as the following 15 drivers with the most wins, will compete for one of the 16 playoff slots.
If necessary, points will be used to break ties among single-race winners. Denny Hamlin of Joe Gibbs Racing, who leads the regular season points standings, has yet to win, while 13 other drivers have.
So, with four races left in the regular season, Almirola is in 14th rank in the playoff rankings, and it’s unlikely that he’ll move up any more, given that the single-race winner with the next-lowest point total, Front Row Motorsports’ Michael McDowell, is 71 points ahead of him in 19th.
As a result, if Almirola is to officially lock himself into the four-round, 10-race postseason, there are scenarios that cannot happen over the next four races, assuming he stays behind McDowell in the point standings.
- If Hamlin maintains his lead in the point standings, Almirola cannot afford for there to be three more different winners who rank above himself in the standings (unless one of them is Hamlin; he can then afford up to three).
- Even if one of the winners is Hamlin, Almirola cannot afford for there to be four more different winners who rank above him in the rankings if Hamlin does not maintain his lead in the point standings.
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In the Go Bowling at The Glen, which is the next event on the schedule, Almirola may go a step closer to securing his spot in the 2021 NASCAR Cup Series playoffs. This event will be aired live from Watkins Glen International on NBC Sports Network beginning at 3:00 p.m. ET on Sunday, August 8.
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