As the race for the 2021 championship reaches its last five races, former Formula One driver John Watson believes Red Bull has the advantage over Mercedes.

If Lewis Hamilton is to beat Max Verstappen to the 2021 world title, John Watson feels he must win one of the next two races.

After the Dutchman’s victory in the United States, Mercedes driver Hamilton is now 12 points behind Red Bull rival Verstappen, the worst deficit he has faced since the Styrian Grand Prix in June (32 points).

Before new debuts in Qatar (Losail) and Saudi Arabia (Jeddah), and the season finale at a highly modified Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi, Red Bull will travel to Mexico and Brazil, where they have had an advantage in recent years.

With Hamilton behind Verstappen in the previous two races, Watson emphasized the importance of securing another victory and turning the tables on the rivals before the races run out.

“I think that the momentum right now is with Red Bull,” five-time Grand Prix winner Watson said.

“In terms of the knowns, I would say Mexico and Brazil favour Red Bull. Abu Dhabi is probably even-stevens, and the other two, Qatar and Saudi, are open for either team.

“Mercedes has made a significant comeback in terms of its performance. And Lewis is still driving, as he showed on Sunday, at the top of his game. But on the other hand, you’ve got an issue around Mercedes with motors and reliability.

“The reality is, Lewis needs to win one of the next two races, and Max have one of the two as a poor result. If Max wins in Mexico, it’s going to be very, very difficult for Lewis to find a way to get back on terms, other than through an unforeseen unreliability issue with Red Bull.”

Apart from Mercedes’ reliability concerns, Watson believes Hamilton has everything he needs to beat Verstappen to a record-breaking eighth world championship.

“Lewis has got every element in the toolbox to take the battle to Max,” Watson went on to comment.

“What he needs is to have the performance, but most of all the reliability, to know that he can nail the car, and that he’s got the maximum potential performance from every component.”

When asked if these concerns about reliability will be on Hamilton’s mind, and if so, how they may impact his driving, Watson said: “It’ll not affect his performance, but obviously if he’s on the back foot, then he’s going to be limited in what he’s going to be able to do.

“He needs Mercedes to deliver at every one of the final five races.”

Watson added: “This is the first genuine championship competition in the hybrid era. Lewis’ opposition has primarily only come from his own teammates, not a rival team, as is the case now.

“It has got all the makings of a stellar finale to the championship.”

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